india may face intense but short outbreak as omicron spreads - India may face intense but short outbreak as Omicron spreads

NEW DELHI (BLOOMBERG) – India may see a spurt in the Covid-19 growth rate within days and head into an intense but short-lived virus wave as the highly infectious Omicron variant moves through the crowded nation of almost 1.4 billion.

“It is likely that India will see a period of explosive growth in daily cases and that the intense growth phase will be relatively short,” Professor Paul Kattuman from the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge, which has developed a Covid-19 India tracker, wrote in an e-mail.

“New infections will begin to rise in a few days, possibly within this week,” he said, adding that it was hard to predict how high the daily cases could go.

Prof Kattuman and his team of researchers, developers of the India Covid-19 tracker, are seeing a sharp rise in infection rates across India.

The tracker spotlighted six states as a “significant concern” in a Dec 24 note, with adjusted growth rate of new cases exceeding 5 per cent. This had expanded to 11 Indian states by Dec 26, according to the tracker, which corrects for “day of the week effects” and other variations.

India, which has confirmed 34.8 million infections and 480,290 deaths so far, is already gearing up to deal with another massive outbreak even though only 653 cases of the highly mutated Omicron have been identified so far.

Last week, it allowed booster shots and included teenagers aged 15 to 18 in the inoculation programme. Two more vaccines as well as Merck’s antiviral pill, molnupiravir, were approved by the local drug regulator on Tuesday (Dec 28).

Indian capital New Delhi closed cinemas, schools and gyms and introduced restrictions on public gathering on Tuesday – a day after it reported the most new cases in more than four months. Night curfew kicks in from 10pm to 5am, and bars, restaurants as well as offices will have 50 per cent occupancy.

These policy decisions underscore hard lessons India learnt after a deadly Delta-led virus wave in April and May that pushed infections to a record-beating 400,000-plus each day. It overwhelmed the country’s hospitals and crematoriums and left its citizens pleading for oxygen and other medical resources on social-media platforms.

The Cambridge India tracker had correctly called the peak of this devastating second wave in May and also forecast in August that India would see a slow burn in its Covid-19 infections curve until the vaccination coverage was sufficiently high. India crossed 1 billion administered vaccine doses in October and new cases plunged in tandem with that milestone.