Is an ASEAN currency crisis looming?

The rumblings of a currency crisis are being heard in emerging markets and are only getting louder. Argentina’s Central Bank raised interest rates to 40 per cent to protect its peso in May 2018. When this did little to help, Argentina took out a US$50 billion credit line from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Turkey stated in August 2018 that more than 35 per cent of the value of its lira had vanished against the US dollar since the beginning of the year. And in India, pressure is also building up against its currency, which has slipped to a record low. Will these trends spark a currency contagion in emerging markets? ASEAN was spared full-blown impact in the 2007–08 global financial crisis. But can it remain immune next time around? On the one hand, ASEAN is seen as a region of economic opportunity and attracts substantial capital inflows. Average GDP growth in ASEAN has been above 5 per cent for the last few years and the IMF and World Bank predict that this growth will continue into 2019 and 2020. On the other hand, borrowing by governments and corporate entities on Wall Street reached US$6.8 trillion in 2017. Global total debt hit US$247 trillion in the first quarter of 2018. These are unprecedented numbers and the associated risks are high. An important financial barometer is the Damocles Index. The Index has called to attention the risk of exchange rate crises for Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Ukraine. Apart from South Africa, the other six countries are already in or facing a currency crisis and seeking assistance from the IMF. ASEAN member states are not facing immediate risk of an exchange rate crisis according to the Index. That being said, the Indonesian rupiah has fallen to its lowest level... If you wish to read this full breaking news headline, plus more articles from around Thailand and Asia like, Is an ASEAN currency crisis looming?, simply click on 'Read full story' below, but 1st please give us a 'LIKE' or 'SHARE' before you leave. Thank you Is an ASEAN currency crisis looming?





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Published By: Thailand Business News - Wednesday, 21 November



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